What we tested
A rule described by a publicly verified trader: after the release we wait 30 minutes, check the direction of the move, enter in that direction with a stop beyond the first 30 minutes’ extreme, and protect the profit with a trailing stop (2 × ATR) for up to 48 hours.
Result
On gold, for Fed decisions (FOMC), CPI inflation and the jobs report (NFP): +5.7 bp per event after costs, t = 2.66 over 480 events. The result was positive in both the build period and the later one. We also checked robustness: 12 variants of trailing stop and holding time — all 12 positive. On indices (Nasdaq, Dow) the same rule did not work.
Then we asked: does it work after every important release? We tested 9 others (PCE, PPI, retail sales, GDP, ISM ×2, JOLTS, ADP, durable goods). Up to 2018 the result was positive, but from 2020 every year was negative. The edge is only on the three biggest events.
What it means for a trader
- Big macro events can start a move that lasts longer than the first minutes — but only the biggest ones.
- The hit rate of such a rule is low (about 41%), and the profit comes from rare, large moves. That is hard psychologically: most attempts end in a small loss.
- An edge from one family of events does not automatically carry over to others.
Limits
480 events is a moderate sample. Past results do not guarantee future results.