Short answer: a dozen signals tell you almost nothing about a channel. With 20 closed trades and a 60% hit rate, the true win rate could sit anywhere between roughly 39% and 78%. Only at around 100 signals does the range narrow to 50–69%, and at 300 to 54–65%.
These are 95% confidence intervals using the Wilson method described in the NIST/SEMATECH statistics handbook. In plain terms: from a small sample you cannot tell a good channel from a lucky streak.
How many is "enough"
| Closed signals | Winners | Win rate in sample | True win rate (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | 60% | 31–83% |
| 20 | 12 | 60% | 39–78% |
| 50 | 30 | 60% | 46–72% |
| 100 | 60 | 60% | 50–69% |
| 300 | 180 | 60% | 54–65% |
After 10 signals, a channel showing "60% wins" could just as well be a 35% or an 80% channel. That is why a screenshot of five wins in a row proves nothing.
Win rate is not the whole story
A win rate misleads unless you know the reward-to-risk ratio. With a 2 R target and a 1 R stop you only need to win a little over 33% of trades to break even before costs. With a 1 R target you need more than 50%. That is why results are best reported in R, multiples of the risk taken, rather than as a hit rate.
What else to look at
- Time. 100 signals from one week say less than 100 signals over six months, because one week of market has one character.
- Completeness. Every signal counts, including cancelled and losing ones. If some "disappear", every statistic is inflated.
- Costs. Spread, commission and slippage take part of the result, especially on short trades. ESMA notes that most retail CFD accounts lose money, so caution is well justified.
Why our VIP opens only after 25 signals
Twenty-five closed signals is still a small sample, but it lets you see the style, the frequency and the first losses before anyone pays. A proper judgement needs dozens, ideally more than a hundred signals. That is why our ledger is public from the very first entry.
Questions
Do 10 winning signals in a row mean a good channel?
No. Winning streaks happen by chance even for weak strategies. What matters is the full history over dozens or more than a hundred signals, losses included.
What is a good win rate?
It depends on the reward-to-risk ratio. With a 2 R target a little over 33% wins breaks even before costs; with a 1 R target you need more than 50%.
Why report results in R instead of pips?
Pips have a different value on every instrument and say nothing about the risk taken. R expresses the result as a multiple of the risk, so trades can be compared with each other.
Sources
- Confidence intervals for proportions (Wilson method) — NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods
- ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors — European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA)
Terms used here
- Spread — The difference between the ask (buy) price and the bid (sell) price. Every round trip pays it once, before the market has moved at all.
- Slippage — The difference between the price an order asked for and the price it got. It is largest when the market moves fast or liquidity is thin.
- Win rate — The share of trades that end in profit. On its own it says little: a 40% win rate can make money and a 70% one can lose it.