Risk-of-ruin simulator
1,000 simulations of your strategy: how often the account loses half at a given risk per trade.
This tool needs JavaScript. The formula and a worked example are below.
- Chance of a 50% drawdown
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- Median result
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- Worst 5% of simulations
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- Expectancy per trade
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What the simulator shows
Each of 1,000 simulations draws trades with the given hit rate. A win = R × risk, a loss = the risk. We count how many simulations ever lost 50% of capital. With a 45% hit rate and R = 1.5, risking 1% rarely ends in disaster; risking 5% often does, despite a positive expectancy.